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Title South Korea's Exports Probably Increased 18.6%; Inflation Eased
Date 2006.09.29

South Korea's exports probably rose at the fastest pace in four months in September on increased sales of cars and
chips. Inflation probably eased in September on falling oil prices.

 

Overseas shipment gained 18.6 percent from a year earlier after climbing 17.6 percent in August, according to the
median forecast of 11 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Consumer prices probably rose an unadjusted 0.3 percent
from August, when they gained 0.9 percent, the survey showed. Trade figures will be released at 10 a.m. on Oct. 1 in
Seoul and the inflation report is due at 1:30 p.m. on Oct. 2.

 

Increased exports to China and the U.S. have stoked South Korea's longest economic expansion in a decade as rising
oil prices and interest rate increases curb domestic demand. Overseas shipments make up 40 percent of Asia's
third-largest economy and have fueled 13 straight quarters of growth.

 

``We believe the strength in exports, though past its peak, will cap the risk of a hard landing,'' Kim Sun Bae, an
economist at Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong, wrote in a report. ``Exports are in the front seat, and domestic demand is
in the back seat.''

 

South Korea's economy slowed in the second quarter as consumer spending slackened and construction fell, tempering an
increase in exports. The International Monetary Fund predicts economic growth will cool in 2007.

 

Vehicle exports may have risen in September after production rebounded following the end of strikes by workers at
carmakers including Hyundai Motor Co., Kia Motors Corp. and Ssangyong Motor Co.

 

A one-month strike at Hyundai Motor, the nation's largest automaker, ended in late July and helped factory output rise
 at the fastest pace in seven months in August. Strikes at Kia and Ssangyong ended last month.

 

Inflation Slows

 

South Korea's inflation probably slowed in September after prices rose by the most in two years in August.

Curbing inflation, the price of Dubai crude oil has dropped 15 percent in the past month after surging to a record
this year. South Korea imports almost all of its oil, making it the world's fifth-largest importer of the fuel.

 

Consumer prices probably climbed 2.5 percent this month from a year earlier, slowing from a 2.9 percent gain in August,
according to the Bloomberg News survey of economists.

 

The central bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.5 percent on Sept. 7, indicating that slowing economic
growth may be a greater concern than inflation. The bank raised rates five times since October 2005 to a five-year high,
to quell price gains stoked by soaring fuel costs.

 

- Source from Bloomberg (29th Sep, 2006) -

 

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